A new report from JTL, published on 8 October 2026, models the future of England's plumbing, heating and ventilation workforce.
Key findings
- The workforce fell from 163,500 in 2018 to 137,800 in 2025, a drop of 16% (ONS data).
- On current trends, it could fall to around 96,900 by 2039.
- About 2,150 people a year start a plumbing apprenticeship, and only around 45% complete.
- Apprentices make up 5.2% of the plumbing workforce, compared with 14.2% in electrical.
To meet Skills England's projected demand while keeping skill levels steady, the report estimates apprenticeship starts would need to rise to around 3,800 a year.
The barriers
The report cites the cost to employers, estimated at £70,000 to £90,000 over a four-year apprenticeship. It also points to the delay to the new Level 2 and Level 3 plumbing standards, which it says is causing some employers to hold off recruiting.
Recommendations
JTL calls for higher hiring incentives for SMEs, plumbing to be made a priority occupation, the new standards to be introduced without further delay, and protection for routes such as NVQs and experienced worker assessment.
Worth noting
The model brings together ONS workforce figures, Department for Education apprenticeship data and, for the first time, combined CSCS card data from JIB-PMES and BESA. The projections cover England only. JTL has also published an interactive version of the model, so readers can test different scenarios for themselves.
Read the full report on the JTL website
